Friday, February 26, 2016

2016 Oscar Predictions

Now that most of the Hollywood movie guilds have had their award shows, I'm posting the most relevant Oscar winner data that I've been compiling over the last two months. Hopefully this transparent information is handy to readers as they prepare their picks for their office pools. Be sure to also check out my last post for a digital painting I did featuring this year's Best Visual Effects nominees. My picks are listed in italics below.

Most Oscar nominations: 12-The Revenant, 10-Mad Max, 7-The Martian, 6-Carol, Bridge of Spies, Spotlight, 5-Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Most BAFTA nominations: 9-Carol, Bridge of Spies, 8-The Revenant, 7-Mad Max, 6-The Martian, Brooklyn, 5-The Big Short, The Danish Girl, Ex Machina, 4-Star Wars, 3-Spotlight, Sicario, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight, 2-Amy, Inside Out, Theeb
Guild Awards Ceremony Schedule:
1/9: Los Angeles Film Critics Association (Critics Circle, one of many)

1/10: Golden Globes (GG)
1/17: Critics Choice (CC)
2/13: Writer's Guild (WGA)
2/28: Academy Awards
Below are the nominees, listed in order announced. In each category's parentheses are the main indicators of who will win.
(V) best Vegas odds  (B) BAFTA winner, (AA) Annie Award winner, (N) most overall nominations of the category's nominees, (RT) Rotten tomatoes score, (*) special requirement of past winners (BZ miss) category Ben Zauzmer missed in 2015 (Vegas miss) category Las Vegas odds sites missed in 2015
SUPPORTING ACTOR (*SAG winner, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, DQS - not nominated for SAG). 
  • CC, Christian Bale, The Big Short  RT 88%
  • DQS Tom Hardy, The Revenant  RT 81%
  • DQS Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight  RT 97%
  • B, Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
  • DQS, GG, V Sylvester Stallone, Creed  RT 93%

  • COSTUME DESIGN (BAFTA winner, Costume Designer's Guild, *B + CDG = lock, DQB-not a BAFTA nominee. Period usually beats Fantasy)
    • Carol  RT 94%
    • Cinderella  RT 84%
    • CDG, The Danish Girl  RT 71%
    • *CDG, B, CC, V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
    • DQB The Revenant  RT 81%

MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING (Matches BAFTA winner 60% of the time, Makeup Artists and Hairstylists Guild, Critics Circle, N-total noms)
  • MUAH, B, CC, V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared  RT 67%
  • N The Revenant  RT 81%

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (most other nominations, misc. honors)
  • Embrace of the Serpent  RT 100%
  • Mustang  RT 98%
  • CC, GG, V Son of Saul  RT 92%
  • Theeb  RT 96%
  • A War  RT 100%

    • SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) (not enough data)
      • V Ave Maria
      • Day One
      • Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
      • Shok
      • Stutterer

    • DOCUMENTARY SHORT (not enough data, HBO screens)
      • HBO, V Body Team 12
      • HBO Chau, Beyond the Lines
      • Claude Lanzmann
      • A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
      • Last Day of Freedom

      • SOUND MIXING (BAFTA better at predicting Mixing than Editing), Cinema Audio Society, Goes with Sound Editing winner only 44% of the timeVegas miss
      • Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
      • V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
      • Star Wars: The Force Awakens  RT 93%
      • The Martian  RT 93%
      • CAS, B The Revenant  RT 81%

      SOUND EDITING (Motion Picture Sound Editors, American Cinema Editors, BAFTA. Goes with Sound Mixing winner only 44% of the time)
      • ACE, V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
      • Sicario  RT 93%
      • Star Wars: The Force Awakens  RT 93%
      • The Martian  RT 93%
      • B The Revenant  RT 81%

    • SUPPORTING ACTRESS (SAG, BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, DQS - not nominated for SAG)
      • DQS Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight  RT 74%
      • V Rooney Mara, Carol  RT 94%
      • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight  RT 97%
      • SAG, CC, V Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl  RT 71%
      • B, GG Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs  RT 85%

    • VISUAL EFFECTS (BAFTA 9/10N-most overall nominations, Predictinator, S-space themed helps, V-VES winner)
      • Ex Machina  RT 92%
      • CC Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
      • S The Martian  RT 93%
      • Predictinator, N The Revenant  RT 81%
      • B, VES, S, V Star Wars: The Force Awakens  RT 93%

ANIMATED SHORT (not enough data, Annie Awards, DQA - not nominated for Annie)
  • DQA Bear Story
  • DQA Prologue
  • V Sanjay's Super Team
  • DQA We Can't Live Without Cosmos
  • AA  World of Tomorrow

ANIMATED FEATURE (BAFTA, Golden Globe, Annie winner, DQG - not nominated for Golden Globe, DQA - not nominated for Annie) BZ miss, Vegas miss
  • Anomalisa  RT 93%
  • DQG, DQA Boy and the World   RT 95%
  • GG, AA, B, CC, V Inside Out  RT 98%
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie  RT 99%
  • DQG, DQA When Marnie Was There  RT 89%

PRODUCTION DESIGN (BAFTA 5/7 recently, Art Directors Guild, BAFTA+ ADG = lock. Period usually beats Fantasy)
  • Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
  • The Danish Girl  RT 71%
  • ADG, B, CC, V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • ADG The Martian  RT 93%
  • ADG The Revenant  RT 81%

CINEMATOGRAPHY (*normally requires a Production Design nomination, G-ASC winner a weak predictor)
  • Carol  RT 94%
  • The Hateful Eight  RT 74%
  • *Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • ASC, B, CC, V,* The Revenant  RT 81%
  • Sicario  RT 93%

FILM EDITING American Cinema Editors (ACE + BAFTA winner agree - 5/5), BZ miss
  • ACE, The Big Short  RT 88%
  • ACE, B, CC, V Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • The Revenant  RT 81%
  • Spotlight  RT 97%
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens  RT 93%

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (tough to predict, multiple nominations, DGA, BAFTA)
  • B, CC, V Amy  RT 96%
  • DGA, Cartel Land  RT 91%
  • The Look of Silence  RT 96%
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?  RT 81%
  • Winter on Fire  RT 94%

ORIGINAL SONG (no good predictor, GG, Critics Choice went to an un-nominated song this year, Critics Circles)
  • "Earned It" - Fifty Shades of Grey  RT 25%
  • "Manta Ray" - Racing Extinction  RT 77%
  • "Simple Song #3" - Youth  RT 74%
  • V "Til It Happens to You" - The Hunting Ground  RT 93%
  • GG "Writing's on the Wall" - Spectre  RT 64%

ORIGINAL SCORE (GG the best but a weak predictor) BZ miss, Vegas miss
  • Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
  • Carol  RT 94%
  • B, CC, GG, V The Hateful Eight  RT 74%
  • Sicario  RT 93%
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens  RT 93%

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (WGA, DQW- no WGA nominationVegas miss
  • Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
  • DQW Ex Machina  RT 92%
  • DQW Inside Out  RT 98%
  • WGA, B, CC, V Spotlight  RT 97%
  • Straight Outta Compton  RT 88%

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (WGA, USC scripter award 5/5 last 5 years, BAFTA, DQW-no WGA nomination, DQB- no BAFTA nomination)
  • WGA, B, CC, V The Big Short  RT 88%
  • DQW Brooklyn  RT 98%
  • Carol  RT 94%
  • DQB The Martian  RT 93%
  • DQW, DQB Room  RT 97%

DIRECTOR (DGA winner, DQD - not nominated for DGA)
  • Adam McKay - The Big Short  RT 88%
  • CC, George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • DGA, B, V Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant  RT  81%
  • DQD Lenny Abrahamson - Room  RT 97%
  • Tom McCarthy - Spotlight  RT 97%

ACTOR (SAG winner, DQS - not nominated for SAG)
  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo  RT 70%
  • DQS, GG Matt Damon, The Martian  RT 93%
  • SAG, B, CC, GG, V Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant  RT 81%
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs  RT 85%
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl  RT 71%

ACTRESS (SAG winner, DQS - not nominated for SAG)
  • Cate Blanchett, Carol  RT 94%
  • SAG, B, CC, GG, V Brie Larson, Room  RT 97%
  • DQS, GG Jennifer Lawrence, Joy  RT 60%
  • DQS Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years  RT 98%
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn  RT 98%

PICTURE (PGA winner, DQP-not nominated for PGA, DGA winner, BE-Best Ensemble SAG nom/win, (BS) Best Screenplay nom, WGA nom, Normally needs 7+ nominations, N-most nominations)
  • BS, CC The Big Short  RT 88%
  • BS, Bridge of Spies  RT 91%
  • BS, Brooklyn  RT 98%
  • GG Mad Max: Fury Road  RT 97%
  • BS, The Martian  RT 93%
  • B, N, GG, V The Revenant  RT 81%
  • Room  RT 97%
  • WGA, BS, BE, Spotlight  RT 97%

Helpful links:
Guild nominations leaderboard

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